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November 19 Takevoer of Wish List company Connors Bros. Completed Connors Bros. November 17 Obama Truncated The Word November 14 Bailout/Bubble Nation Until The End The Word Nov 12 Why Your FDIC-Backed Bank Could Fail Prechter
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Goldman cuts U.S. growth forecast, sees 9% unemployment Buffett On Unemployment, Goldman Investment Fox Business U.S. consumers expect steep unemployment rise: survey Stock Volatility Will Soon Top 1929 Record on S&P Rout Gold surges more than 6% on safe-haven buying MW Citi's Pandit: We Will Not Sell Smith Barney, Shares Plunge Again CNBC US seeks 300 billion dlrs from Gulf states Quoting "highly informed" sources, the daily said Washington has asked Saudi Arabia for 120 billion dollars, the United Arab Emirates for 70 billion dollars, Qatar for 60 billion dollars and was seeking 40 billion dollars from Kuwait. Waging war against deflation could have nasty consequences Debt Deflation Bear Market Update Part I: 2009 Windup iTulip Fed's Bullard: U.S. deflation an issue Fed must face
Treasuries Head for Best Week Since Stock Market Crash in 1987 Not a good sign: the Treasury once again can borrow for free The Long Bond is trading at a yield of 3.43% and the dollar price has exploded 9 points today. I have done this for nearly 30 years. I have never witnessed this before. Treasury note yields signal market's direction Dividend yield tops the 10-Year Treasury for the first time in 50 years Don’t panic about the stock market. Panic about the credit markets instead
'Nowhere to run': Bear mauls long-held market beliefs, too “There is nowhere to run and hide. You have gotten bludgeoned in every direction.” S&P's Worst-Ever Year Leaves 63 Industries, 482 Companies With Losses Bears' run not done yet? Four Bad Bears 2002 Stock Lows May Not Hold Bears Gone Bulls Badly Hit since late October Ignore the Stock Market Until February Stock markets may trade sideways for 15 years - Hendry Lowry Research On Current Market Conditions Trader’s Narrative Eddie Lampert's Troubles: It's Not Just Sears BeSpoke Corporate Earnings Go Cliff Diving Mogambo Keen - Dr. HB Faber: Strong Rebound Coming in Next 3 Months Why No Currency Crisis? Schiff: Dollar Will 'Fall Like a Stone' Volcker Is Said to Foresee Extended Economic Slump in U.S. Wayne Angell blames Fed for downturn Twenty Reasons Why We're Not Consuming The New Frugality: Americans rediscover thriftiness in economic crisis Campbell Beats Bear Market as Consumers Open Soup Kitchens BL Light at the End of the Recession Fed's Lacker: Reasonable to expect rebound in 2009
The Big 3 Depression risk Credit cards will be the next big financial blowup Visa says might incur "significant" charges in FY09 FHA-Backed Loans: The New Subprime The same people whose reckless practices triggered the global financial crisis are onto a similar scheme that could cost taxpayers tons more Commercial Loans Are Looking Risky California median home price drops 34 percent Crisis Hits Values of Commercial Mortgages Fannie, Freddie Suspend Foreclosures Through Jan. 9
Citigroup on the block Markman: “...one theory making the rounds this week is that Buffett put $5 billion into Goldman at around $125 per share in September not as an investment but to help provide funds for the collateral.” Jobs, Gates, Buffett Should Run U.S. Automakers The decline of the North American car Macleans Pass the plate Economist If Detroit’s carmakers are bailed out, Europe’s will be next in line Toyota to Cut 3,000 Jobs, 50% of Japanese Temporary Workers, as Sales Fall A tough auto market? Not if you're a Maserati exec Dell sees China sales down Financial Job Losses May Reach 350,000 WaMu to slash 1,600 jobsin Banking Industry `Seismic Shift' Bank of New York Mellon to ax 1,800 jobs Bad news for the back-office boys of Atticus Is nothing sacred? Even Nat Rothschild’s Atticus Capital is laying off staff. `Unprecedented' Biotech Bankruptcies Erupt as Global Crisis Curbs Funding Can auditors be sure a firm will survive the next 12 months? U.S. retirees hit by "longevity risk" Barbarians of Yore Perish in Bonfire of Inanities 'Barbarians at the Gate' authors reflect on Wall Street's madness
The Six Biggest Myths About Gold Russia's Sberbank sees precious metals sales surge With oil at $50, can $30 barrels be far away? Gas prices sink below $2 Refiners pinched as gas price falls faster than oil Goldman: We Give Up On Guessing Oil Prices The case for buying oil stocks Petrobras Discovers Up to 2 Billion Barrels of Light Oil in Espirito Santo
Doubt greets IMF bailout offers Japan Economy Headed for Longest Slump in Decade, Analysts Say Singapore Lowers 2008 Growth Forecast; Says Economy May Shrink Next Year Mortgage debt forces thousands to sell up Over one in five homes on the market are there because owners cannot afford the mortgage repayments A free lunch for you is a painful cost for someone else Japanese Companies Curb Shareholder Perks, Gifts Amid Recession HK’s Exchange Fund posts $83.3b loss Jan-Sept Indonesia orders energy companies to bank locally Markets wary of Irish debt as fresh rescue looms Shake-up could leave only two banks Thanks, Hank Asian pensioners are the latest victims of Lehman’s bankruptcy Heading for recession – and the crime wave that goes with it The End Of An Error: Yugo Stops Production Why does a Yugo have a defroster on the rear window? To keep your hands warm while you push it. Report: U.S. Influence Will Fade By 2025 CBS Global Trends 2025 DNI Pirates send shipping firms on costly detour G&M New Hyperinflation Index (HHIZ) Puts Zimbabwe Inflation at 89.7 Sextillion Percent CATO
S&P closes at lowest level in more than 11 years MW Dems delay auto bailout vote, seek plan from Big 3 AP JPMorgan Will Fire 3,000 in Investment Banking, Freeze Some Base Salaries BL Leading indicators fall by more than expected in Oct. AP Conference Board U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise to Highest Level Since 1992 BL U.S. Financial System Still Needs at Least $1.0 Trillion to $1.2 Trillion FBR PDF Perfect Consumer Storm to Last Until Mid-2009 The Paradox of Deleveraging Will Be Broken PIMCO (McCulley) Recovery Watch 2009
Bernanke May Find Deflation `Back on the Table' as Threat... Falling Consumer Prices -- Good or Bad for Consumers It is inexcusable that economists would be spreading this malarkey! Prechter Explains the Price Effects of Inflation and Deflation Prechter Global deflation risk grows The Menace that is Deflation Cutting Interest Rates May Not Be Enough: Gross Fed guards against deflation Kohn: “We have already engaged in forms of quantitative easing” Fed to Cut Rates to Zero in January on Deflation Risk, JPM Predicts Deflation now tops policy-makers' hit list “Something like three years of global demand for refrigerators is in warehouses in China” In a weird world, yields on Tips point to deflation FT 2008’s Deflation Scare Echoes 2002 China Money: Market gears up for deflation Months after coping with the highest inflation in more than a decade, China's money market is gearing up for a fresh shock: deflation. Japan Faces Deflation as Exports Slump, Says Barclays' Morita The spectre of 30s-style deflation in the British economy looms
Stocks Slump As Signs Point To Harder Times Over 100 U.S. "blue chips" now selling for under $10 a share All for One and One for All WSJ James Bianco notes that the following seven assets currently sport at least an 85% correlation with the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index Bears' glass half empty or half full? Risk Management Puplava Welcome to the Great Unwind Bonner Mogambo Phase IV of the Global Systemic crisis Breakdown of the Global Monetary System by summer 2009 The need for another unemployment benefit extension School daze: Wall Street woes hamper local building projects
The Road to Financial Ruin: We Have to Spend Money Now The death throes of the bond insurers Best housing 'bailout' may be no bailout Housing slowdown spurs auction of construction equipment Sign of the times: housing bubble pop in Dunsmuir No job, bad mortgage -- no luck All the foreclosure prevention plans to date will do little to help the next wave of delinquent homeowners, who can't make their monthly payments because they've lost their jobs Corporate Bond Risk Rises to Record in Europe, Credit-Default Swaps Show Junk Bond Yields Reach Record 20% “Either the market is right and expecting a default rate considerably higher than it was in the Great Depression, or we have such profound dislocations and selling pressures going on that it really is creating extraordinary fundamental value”
GMAC Applies for Status as U.S. Bank, Begins Exchange of $38 Billion Debt Auto CEOs come begging on private jets “There's a delicious irony in seeing private luxury jets flying in to Washington and people coming off of them with tin cups in their hands saying that they're going to be trimming down...” Rolls Royce to cut up to 2,000 jobs in 2009 Chrysler Canada seeks $1-billion 'Saved by Zero': The Toyota Ad That Won't Stop Isuzu, Mazda Cut 2,700 Jobs, Reduce Output in Japan on Vehicle Sales Slump Alwaleed Exceeds Buffett's Loss Rate as Citigroup, News Corp. Values Slum Emerging market guru Mark Mobius punts Brazil Grand Canyon IPO breaks drought, prices low The pricing broke a nearly 15-week slump without an IPO in the US, the longest in decades. U.S. probing Golden West lending, sale: prosecutor Legal Boutiques Take On UBS, Citigroup as `Magic Circle' Law Firms Beg Off Hurt by Losses, Pension Funds Criticize Rules Calpers Sold $2 Billion of Private-Equity Stakes Before Markets Tumbled Conrad Black pursues clemency from Bush as way out Rich Cut Back on Payments to Mistresses WSJ Still, only 12% of the multimillionaire cheaters said they plan to give up on their lovers altogether for financial reasons.
Oil Falls Below $50 a Barrel for First Time in 22 Months as Demand Weakens Relief at pump: gasoline below $2 a gallon Oil Supertankers May Avoid Suez on Somalia Piracy, Raising Shipping Costs New mining projects slashed Schiff: Gold Will Rise, Dollar Will Collapse Copper to Slump Below $1 a Pound as Inventories Swell, Threlkeld Forecasts
Nikkei sinks below 8,000; Kospi and Hang Seng dive “It's all about the October lows. Investors are hoping we can hold on to the lows that were formed in October, or hold above there; if we don't, the outlook is very, very bad." Japan's Exports Drop Most in Seven Years as Global Recession Intensifies US treasury bonds 'still the best option' US template wrong for China Chinese officials warn of 'grim' jobs outlook Job seekers in cities outnumber new jobs 2-to-1 Interest-only borrowers trapped by price falls 41% were hoping to use the increase in the value of their property to pay off their loan... Sarkozy’s Fiscal Meeting Raises Diplomatic Hackles NYT Mr. Sarkozy said nothing about his plans to convene a meeting to President Bush or the 18 other leaders while he was here. Iceland secures £2bn IMF rescue package Sweden's Biggest Banks Shun State Rescue Plan, Riling Ministers, Companies “If the banks do not participate voluntarily and cannot show that they can create liquidity in the system themselves, then the government must force the banks to join the system” Babcock on the brink Economic deja vu as powers that be play same old tune Market crashes: Blowing bubbles Bankruptcies Surge Fears of rights issue at Wolseley as plumber cuts another 2,300 jobs Turkey: Reckless and dangerous rate cut University loses 15 billion yen in derivatives “ As none of the members in our university's management has detailed knowledge on financial products, we cannot deny that we were too optimistic.”
Leonard To recap: The U.S. financial sector, housing industry, and auto industry are on life support, the Federal Reserve is gloomy, and a massive wave of deflation is breaking over the entire economy.
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“This modern risk-management paradigm held sway for decades. The whole intellectual edifice, however, collapsed in the summer of last year.” Alan Greenspan
“...there is a great opportunity for China to learn from our significant mistakes...” Paulson
“Government owning a stake in any private U.S. company is objectionable to most Americans – me included.” Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson
“We have never seen, in history, public intervention taking place in such a massive way in such a short timespan." Europe Shares Nosedive - Reuters
"We have a failed financial structure" Volcker
“I sincerely believe that Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke should resign” Jim Bunning
“We're not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months, we're going to see a whopper, we're going to see a big one, one of the big investment banks or big banks" Rogoff
“I'm not going so far as to say we're going to live in a cave, but life is going to change.” Rosenberg
“Neither we nor anyone else can predict when the housing market will recover and it would be folly for anyone to try to do so.” Richard F. Syron
“I believe we're going to go into recession, I think the second half (of the year) will be worse than the first half, and I think the recession will last into 2009...” Hedge star Paulson
“Purging rampant inflation and a debased currency requires administering a harsh medicine.” Storms on the Horizon Fed Fisher
“The markets have developed into a monster that has to be tamed" Horst Koehler
“The recession is just starting” Jamie Dimon
“Worry about inflation after we're sure this isn't a depression" David Wyss
“This is not to protect the banks but to protect the public from the banks” Mervyn King
“It is not over yet.” Fed Kohn
“Are there risks here? Yes, but the risks are modest in comparison to the substantial damage to the economy and economic well-being that potentially would have accompanied Bear's insolvency.” Fed Geithner
"Basically the Fed is starting to take the crappy paper off the Street" ~ NYP
“There probably will be some bank failures” Bernanke
“I try to stay away from commenting on my successor because he's got enough problems." Greenspan
“The seeds of an inflation problem are sown several years in advance, and it is not always easy to see the seeds as they sprout.” Fed Poole
“I wouldn't quite call it a credit crunch. Funds are available...What has happened is a repricing of risk and an unavailability of what I might call 'dumb money,' of which there was plenty around a year ago." Buffett
“People have more debt than they can afford to pay and they gambled on house prices going up forever. There is no way that Fed policies can undo these harsh realities. Bernanke needs to say to Congress, ‘We have reached the limits of what responsible monetary policy can do.’ ” Joseph E. Stiglitz, NYT
“Cash is available. We should use that in larger amounts, as necessary, to solve the problems of the stress [of repossession]" Alan Greenspan
“Even if necessary changes in policy are implemented, the odds now favour a US recession that slows growth significantly on a global basis.” Lawrence Summers
“Our entire banking system is a complete disaster. In my opinion, nearly every major bank would be insolvent if they marked their assets to market.” Andrew Lahde
Quote of the year? “When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing” Chuck Prince, July 10, 2007
“Remember the fellow who said you couldn't know a bubble until after it burst? With some distance from his perch at the Fed, Greenspan seems to have acquired 20-20 vision.” Baum
“Bernanke loves printing money. This man is a nut” Rogers
“Should growth fall below 1 percent, we could see a plunge in the dollar. Some form of intervention would be necessary to stop it” Mr. Yen
“I’d like to know what those damn things are worth” Bernanke
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